Ngemva kokuba inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lenyuke laya endaweni yesibili emhlabeni okokuqala ngo-Agasti, ukusebenza kwezimoto zaseShayina ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu ngoSepthemba. Phakathi kwazo, kungaba ukukhiqiza, ukuthengisa noma ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, izimoto ezintsha zamandla ziyaqhubeka nokugcina umkhuba wokukhula “kohambo olulodwa oluya othulini”.

Abangaphakathi embonini bathi ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla sekuyinto evelele embonini yezimoto yezwe lami, futhi izinga lokungena kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla zasekhaya ezimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle likhuphuke ngokushesha, futhi lo mkhuba omuhle wentuthuko kulindeleke ukuthi uqhubeke.

Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kumakota amathathu okuqala kukhuphuke ngo-55.5% unyaka nonyaka

Ngokusho kwedatha yokuthengisa yanyanga zonke ekhishwe yi-China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (ebizwa ngokuthi yi-China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) ngo-Okthoba 11, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto eShayina kuqhubekile nokuthola imiphumela emihle ngoSepthemba ngemuva kokufinyelela irekhodi eliphezulu ngo-Agasti, kudlule izimoto ezingu-300,000 okokuqala ngqa. Ukwenyuka ngo-73.9% kwaya ezimotweni ezingu-301,000.

Izimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle ziba yindlela entsha yokukhula kokuthengiswa kwezinkampani zezimoto zohlobo ezizimele. Uma sibheka ukusebenza kwezinkampani ezinkulu, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Agasti, ingxenye yokuthunyelwa kwezimoto ze-SAIC Motor ikhuphuke yafika ku-17.8%, i-Changan Motor ikhuphuke yafika ku-8.8%, i-Great Wall Motor ikhuphuke yafika ku-13.1%, kanti i-Geely Automobile ikhuphuke yafika ku-14%.

Okukhuthazayo ukuthi imikhiqizo ezimele ifinyelele intuthuko enkulu ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe ezimakethe zaseYurophu naseMelika kanye nasezimakethe zomhlaba wesithathu, kanti isu lokuthumela imikhiqizo kwamanye amazwe eShayina liye lasebenza kahle kakhulu, okugqamisa ukuthuthuka okuphelele kwekhwalithi kanye nenani lezimoto ezikhiqizwe ngaphakathi ezweni.

Ngokusho kukaXu Haidong, iphini likanjiniyela omkhulu we-China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, ngenkathi inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe likhuphukile, intengo yamabhayisikili nayo iqhubekile nokwenyuka. Intengo emaphakathi yezimoto ezintsha zamandla zaseShayina emakethe yaphesheya kwezilwandle ifinyelele cishe kumadola aseMelika angu-30,000.

Ngokusho kwedatha ye-Passenger Car Market Information Association (ebizwa ngokuthi i-Passenger Car Association), impumelelo esheshayo emakethe yokuthumela izimoto zabagibeli iyinto evelele. NgoSepthemba, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto zabagibeli (kufaka phakathi izimoto eziphelele kanye nama-CKD) ngaphansi kwezibalo ze-Passenger Federation kwakungamayunithi angu-250,000, ukwanda ngo-85% unyaka nonyaka, kanye nokwanda ngo-77.5% ngo-Agasti. Phakathi kwazo, ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo ezizimele kufinyelele kumayunithi angu-204,000, ukwanda ngo-88% unyaka nonyaka. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuSepthemba, ingqikithi yezimoto zabagibeli zasekhaya eziyizigidi ezingu-1.59 zathunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka okungu-60%.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla kwamanye amazwe sekuyinto ebalulekile ekuqhubekiseleni phambili ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto zasekhaya kwamanye amazwe.

Idatha evela kwi-China Automobile Association ikhombisile ukuthi kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuSepthemba, izinkampani zezimoto zaseShayina zithumele izimoto eziyizigidi ezingu-2.117, okuwukwenyuka konyaka nonyaka okungu-55.5%. Phakathi kwazo, kwathunyelwa izimoto ezintsha zamandla ezingu-389,000, ukwenyuka konyaka nonyaka okungaphezu kwezikhathi ezi-1, kanti izinga lokukhula laliphezulu kakhulu kunezinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemboni yezimoto.

Idatha evela kwi-Passenger Federation ikhombisa nokuthi ngoSepthemba, izimoto zasekhaya zabagibeli ezisebenzisa amandla amasha zathumela ngaphandle amayunithi angu-44,000, okubalelwa cishe ku-17.6% wesamba sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe (kufaka phakathi izimoto eziphelele kanye ne-CKD). I-SAIC, i-Geely, i-Great Wall Motor, i-AIWAYS, i-JAC, njll. Amamodeli amasha kagesi ezinkampani zezimoto enze kahle ezimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle.

Ngokusho kwabangaphakathi embonini, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla ezweni lami kuye kwakha iphethini "yomhlaba omkhulu owodwa futhi eminingi inamandla": Ukuthunyelwa kweTesla eShayina kuphezulu kakhulu, kanti izinhlobo zayo eziningana zisesimweni esihle sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, kanti izinkampani ezintathu eziphezulu zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe izimoto ezintsha zamandla ziphakathi kwezintathu eziphezulu. Izimakethe yiBelgium, i-UK neThailand.

Kunezici eziningi ezibangela ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwezimoto kwamanye amazwe yizinkampani

Imboni ikholelwa ukuthi umfutho oqinile wokuthunyelwa kwezimoto kwamanye amazwe kumakota amathathu okuqala alo nyaka ubangelwa kakhulu usizo lwezinto eziningi.

Njengamanje, isidingo semakethe yezimoto emhlabeni wonke sikhuphuke kakhulu, kodwa ngenxa yokuntuleka kwama-chip nezinye izingxenye, abakhiqizi bezimoto bakwamanye amazwe banciphise umkhiqizo, okuholele ekungeneni okukhulu kokunikezwa.

UMeng Yue, iphini lomqondisi woMnyango Wezohwebo Lwangaphandle woMnyango Wezohwebo, ngaphambilini uthe ngokombono wesidingo semakethe yamazwe ngamazwe, imakethe yezimoto yomhlaba wonke iyalulama kancane kancane. Kubikezelwa ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwezimoto emhlabeni wonke kuzoba ngaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-80 kulo nyaka kanye nezigidi ezingama-86.6 ngonyaka ozayo.

Ngaphansi kwethonya lobhubhane olusha lwe-crown pneumonia, izimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle zidale igebe lokunikezwa ngenxa yokushoda kwe-supply chain, kuyilapho ukuhleleka kokukhiqiza okuzinzile kweShayina ngenxa yokuvimbela nokulawula ubhubhane okufanele kukhuthaze ukudluliselwa kwama-oda angaphandle eShayina. Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-AFS (AutoForecast Solutions), kusukela ekupheleni kukaMeyi kulo nyaka, ngenxa yokushoda kwama-chip, imakethe yezimoto yomhlaba wonke inciphise ukukhiqizwa ngezimoto ezingaba yizigidi ezingu-1.98, kanti iYurophu yisifunda esinokwehla okukhulu kokukhiqizwa kwezimoto ngenxa yokushoda kwama-chip. Lokhu futhi kuyisici esikhulu ekuthengisweni okungcono kwezimoto zaseShayina eYurophu.

Kusukela ngo-2013, njengoba amazwe enqume ukushintshela ekuthuthukisweni okuluhlaza, imboni yezimoto ezintsha zamandla isiqalile ukuthuthuka ngokushesha.

Njengamanje, amazwe nezifunda ezingaba ngu-130 emhlabeni wonke aphakamise noma alungiselela ukuphakamisa imigomo yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni. Amazwe amaningi acacise uhlelo lokuvimbela ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikaphethiloli. Isibonelo, iNetherlands neNorway baphakamise ukuvimbela ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikaphethiloli ngo-2025. I-India neJalimane balungiselela ukuvimbela ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikaphethiloli ngo-2030. IFrance ne-United Kingdom bahlela ukuvimbela ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikaphethiloli ngo-2040. Thengisa izimoto zikaphethiloli.

Ngaphansi kwengcindezi yemithethonqubo eqinile yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni, ukwesekwa kwenqubomgomo yezimoto ezintsha zamandla emazweni ahlukahlukene kuqhubekile nokuqina, futhi isidingo somhlaba wonke sezimoto ezintsha zamandla sigcine umkhuba wokukhula, ohlinzeka isikhala esibanzi sezimoto ezintsha zamandla zezwe lami ukungena ezimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle. Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi ngo-2021, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla ezweni lami kuzofinyelela amayunithi angu-310,000, ukwanda cishe kathathu ngonyaka, okuhlanganisa u-15.4% wezimoto eziphelele ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla kuqhubekile nokuba namandla, futhi umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ukhuphuke ngokuphindwe ka-1.3 ngonyaka, okuhlanganisa u-16.6% wezimoto eziphelele ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Ukukhula okuqhubekayo kokuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla kwikota yesithathu yalo nyaka kuwukuqhubeka kwalesi simo.

Ukukhula okukhulu kokuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezweni lami nakho kuzuze ekwandeni "kwesiyingi sabangane" baphesheya kwezilwandle.

Amazwe aseduze ne-“Belt and Road” ayizimakethe eziyinhloko zokuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezweni lami, afinyelela ngaphezu kuka-40%; kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuJulayi kulo nyaka, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezweni lami emazweni angamalungu e-RCEP kwakuyizimoto ezingu-395,000, okuwukwenyuka konyaka nonyaka okungu-48.9%.

Njengamanje, izwe lami lisayine izivumelwano zokuhweba zamahhala ezingu-19, ezihlanganisa amazwe nezifunda ezingu-26. I-Chile, i-Peru, i-Australia, i-New Zealand kanye namanye amazwe anciphise intela yemikhiqizo yezimoto zezwe lami, okudala indawo elula kakhulu yokuthuthukiswa kwezinkampani zezimoto emhlabeni jikelele.

Enkambisweni yokuguqulwa nokuthuthukiswa kwemboni yezimoto yaseShayina, ngaphezu kokugxila emakethe yasekhaya, igxile nasemakethe yomhlaba wonke. Njengamanje, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwabakhiqizi bezimoto zasekhaya emakethe yezimoto ezintsha zamandla kudlula kakhulu okwezinkampani zezimoto zamazwe ngamazwe. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izinkampani zezimoto zasekhaya zithembele ezimotweni ezintsha zamandla ukuthuthukisa ubuchwepheshe bokuxhumana obuhlakaniphile, obunezinzuzo zobuhlakani kanye nokuxhumana, futhi obube yisisulu esikhangayo kubathengi bakwamanye amazwe.

Ngokusho kwabangaphakathi embonini, kungenxa yokuthi ihola kakhulu emkhakheni wezimoto ezintsha zamandla ukuthi ukuncintisana kwamazwe ngamazwe kwezinkampani zezimoto zaseShayina kuqhubeke nokuthuthuka, imigqa yemikhiqizo iqhubeke nokuthuthuka, futhi ithonya lomkhiqizo liye landa kancane kancane.

Thatha i-SAIC njengesibonelo. I-SAIC isungule izindawo zokumaketha nezinsizakalo zaphesheya kwezilwandle ezingaphezu kuka-1,800. Imikhiqizo nezinsizakalo zayo zisatshalaliswa emazweni nasezifundeni ezingaphezu kuka-90, zakha izimakethe ezinkulu eziyisithupha eYurophu, e-Australia, eNew Zealand naseMelika. Ukuthengiswa kwaphesheya kwezilwandle okuhlanganisiwe kudlule izimoto eziyizigidi ezintathu. Phakathi kwazo, ukuthengiswa kwaphesheya kwezilwandle kwe-SAIC Motor ngo-Agasti kufinyelele amayunithi ayi-101,000, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka okungu-65.7%, okucishe kube ngu-20% wesamba sokuthengiswa, kwaba yinkampani yokuqala eShayina ukudlula amayunithi ayi-100,000 ngenyanga eyodwa ezimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle. NgoSepthemba, ukuthunyelwa kwe-SAIC kwanda kwafinyelela ezimotweni eziyi-108,400.

Umhlaziyi we-Securities ongumsunguli uDuan Yingsheng uhlaziye ukuthi imikhiqizo ezimele iye yasheshisa intuthuko yezimakethe eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, eYurophu naseMelika ngokwakhiwa kwamafektri phesheya kwezilwandle (kufaka phakathi amafektri e-KD), iziteshi zokuthengisa ezihlangene phesheya kwezilwandle, kanye nokwakhiwa okuzimele kweziteshi phesheya kwezilwandle. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuqashelwa kwemakethe kwemikhiqizo ezizimele nakho kuyathuthuka kancane kancane. Kwezinye izimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle, ukuthandwa kwemikhiqizo ezizimele kufana nokwezinkampani zezimoto zamazwe ngamazwe.

Amathemba athembisayo ezinkampani zezimoto ukuthi zisebenze ngokuzikhandla kwamanye amazwe

Nakuba zithola ukusebenza okuhle kakhulu kokuthumela kwamanye amazwe, izinkampani zezimoto zohlobo lwasekhaya zisasebenzisa izimakethe zakwamanye amazwe ukuze zilungiselele ikusasa.

Ngomhlaka-13 Septhemba, izimoto ezintsha ze-SAIC Motor ezingu-10,000 MG MULAN zathunyelwa zisuka eShanghai zaya emakethe yaseYurophu. Leli yiqoqo elikhulu kunawo wonke lezimoto zikagesi ezihlanzekile ezithunyelwa zisuka eShayina ziya eYurophu kuze kube manje. Umuntu ofanele ophethe uMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi uthe ukuthunyelwa kwe-SAIC “kwezimoto ezingu-10,000 eYurophu” kuphawula intuthuko entsha ekuthuthukisweni kwamazwe ngamazwe kwemboni yezimoto yezwe lami, ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla eShayina kungene esigabeni sokuthuthuka okusheshayo, futhi kuphinde kushukumise imboni yezimoto yomhlaba wonke ukuba iguquke ibe ugesi.

Eminyakeni yamuva nje, imisebenzi yokwandisa izimoto zakwamanye amazwe yeGreat Wall Motor nayo ibilokhu ivame kakhulu, futhi inani eliphelele lokuthengiswa kwezimoto eziphelele kwamanye amazwe lidlule isigidi esisodwa. NgoJanuwari kulo nyaka, iGreat Wall Motor ithenge isitshalo saseNdiya seGeneral Motors, kanye nesitshalo seMercedes-Benz Brazil esitholwe ngonyaka odlule, kanye nezitshalo zaseRussia naseThailand ezisungulwe, iGreat Wall Motor ithole isakhiwo emakethe yase-Eurasia naseNingizimu Melika. Ngo-Agasti kulo nyaka, iGreat Wall Motor kanye ne-Emile Frye Group bafinyelele ngokusemthethweni esivumelwaneni sokubambisana, futhi amaqembu amabili azohlola ngokubambisana imakethe yaseYurophu.

I-Chery, eyayithumela kwamanye amazwe izimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle ngaphambilini, ibone ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamanye amazwe ngo-Agasti kukhuphuka ngo-152.7% unyaka nonyaka kwafinyelela ezimotweni ezingu-51,774. I-Chery isisungule izikhungo ze-R&D eziyisithupha, izisekelo zokukhiqiza eziyi-10 kanye nezindawo zokuthengisa nezinsizakalo ezingaphezu kuka-1,500 phesheya kwezilwandle, futhi imikhiqizo yayo ithunyelwa eBrazil, eRussia, e-Ukraine, eSaudi Arabia, eChile nakwamanye amazwe. Ngo-Agasti walo nyaka, i-Chery yaqala ukuxoxisana nabakhiqizi bezimoto baseRussia ukuze kufezwe ukukhiqizwa kwendawo eRussia.

Kusukela ekupheleni kukaJulayi kuya ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti kulo nyaka, i-BYD imemezele ukungena emakethe yezimoto zabagibeli eJapane naseThailand, futhi yaqala ukuhlinzeka ngemikhiqizo emisha yezimoto zamandla ezimakethe zaseSweden naseJalimane. NgoSepthemba 8, i-BYD yamemezela ukuthi izokwakha ifektri yezimoto zikagesi eThailand, okuhlelelwe ukuthi iqale ukusebenza ngo-2024, enomthamo wokukhiqiza waminyaka yonke wezimoto ezingaba ngu-150,000.

I-Changan Automobile ihlela ukwakha izisekelo ezimbili kuya kwezine zokukhiqiza kwamanye amazwe ngo-2025. I-Changan Automobile ithe izosungula indlunkulu yaseYurophu kanye nendlunkulu yaseNyakatho Melika ngesikhathi esifanele, futhi ingene ezimakethe zezimoto zaseYurophu naseNyakatho Melika ngemikhiqizo yezimoto esezingeni eliphezulu nezobuchwepheshe obuphezulu.

Amanye amandla amasha okwenza izimoto nawo ahlose izimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle futhi azimisele ukuzama.

Ngokusho kwemibiko, ngoSepthemba 8, iLeap Motor yamemezela ukungena kwayo ngokusemthethweni ezimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle. Yafinyelela ekubambisaneni nenkampani yezimboni zezimoto zase-Israel ukuthumela iqembu lokuqala lama-T03 kwa-Israyeli; uWeilai uthe ngo-Okthoba 8 ukuthi imikhiqizo yayo, izinsizakalo zohlelo lonke kanye nemodeli yebhizinisi entsha kuzosetshenziswa eJalimane, eNetherlands, eSweden naseDenmark; iXpeng Motors ikhethe neYurophu njengesifunda esithandwayo sokuhlanganiswa kwayo komhlaba wonke. Kuzosiza iXiaopeng Motors ukuthi ingene ngokushesha emakethe yaseYurophu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-AIWAYS, i-LANTU, i-WM Motor, njll. nazo zingene emakethe yaseYurophu.

I-China Automobile Association ibikezela ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto ezweni lami kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule izigidi ezingu-2.4 kulo nyaka. Umbiko wakamuva wocwaningo lwe-Pacific Securities uthe ukwenza imizamo ohlangothini lokuthunyelwa kwezimoto kungasiza izinkampani zezimoto zasekhaya ezisezingeni eliphezulu kanye nezingxenye ukuthi zisheshise ukwandiswa kochungechunge lwezimboni, futhi zikhuthaze amandla azo angokwemvelo maqondana nokuvuselelwa kobuchwepheshe kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwesistimu yekhwalithi.

Kodwa-ke, abantu abangaphakathi embonini bakholelwa ukuthi imikhiqizo ezimele isabhekene nezinselele ezithile "ekuya phesheya kwezilwandle". Njengamanje, iningi lemikhiqizo ezimele engena emakethe ethuthukisiwe isesesigabeni sokuhlolwa, futhi ukuhwebelana kwezimoto zaseShayina emhlabeni wonke kusadinga isikhathi sokuqinisekisa.